My grandfather, a concert pianist by trade always thought the best joke in the world was “How do you get to Carnegie Hall..... PRACTICE!”.
The truth is, like playing a piano, running a marathon, beating grandma and grandpa out of the grand kids' inheritance and making a sale... it is all about practice.... and some knowledge. Allow me to illustrate:
In my early years I ran marathons. Why? My knees ask the same question of me every time a storm blows in... but I digress. The fact is I ran marathons and never won one. I was out to beat my “time”. Even in those days I understood a goal. I had my running stride measured, and it came in at just under 3 feet. Now, being that a marathon was 26.5 miles, I would need to take 46,640 running steps to complete the marathon. This means that if I wanted to finish the marathon in 3 hours, I would need to take 259 steps per minute, or 4.3 steps per second for 180 minutes. You may now understand why I never finished a marathon in under 4 hours. But had I been able to take a stride, every tick of my watch for three hours, I could complete a three hour marathon! It is just math. No timing “splits”, or checking runners around me, or keeping with pacers... just counting my steps to the tick of a watch.
Last weekend I was in a casino. I watched Grandma and Grandpa Midwest sit at a Black jack table. They had their little cheat cards in hand, and we trying to count the cards on the table, watch what everyone else had and predict the cards coming up. Meanwhile the professional at the table... the dealer... took a card when she was at 16 or less, and never took a card at 17 or more. No matter what was happening at the table, the dealer took a card when she was at 16 or less, and never took a card at 17 or more. Does this strategy work? Well I ask you this question... who paid the $1,000,000,000 (One Billions Dollars, or said another way, 1000 million) it took to pay off the Belagio? That's right, grandma and Grandpa with their cheat cards, their systems, their plans to break the bank. My problem is that I know the odds on every game in every casino, and knowing that is what keeps me from every playing. Honestly I would rather just walk in the front door of the casino and meet a guy who does a coin flip... we see who wins. That being said, the Casino would NEVER take that bet. Odds are too close. In fact that is only ONE bet in the entire casino with 50/50 odds and at the end of this I'll tell you what it is.
The AIM system (https://www.murphybroadcasting.com/) has been gathering empirical data on radio sales for a few years now using thousands of sales people. What did we lean? 33%. Yep that's it. 33%. Let me explain:
No matter the size of the market and no matter the rates or ratings... when sales people make three annual presentations every week, using three spec spots per presentation, proceeding this with a detailed CNA and producing an ROI calculation, they will close 1 of three orders for the average amount of an order for their stations(s). No Voodoo here, just math. A sales rep who takes the time to do a CNA (and those appointments are the hardest part), do a presentation, run an ROI calculation and have three SPEC ads produced for the closing WILL close 1 in 3 as annuals!
So what do I know... I know that my old legs are not going to do what is needed to run a 3 hour marathon because I know the math. I know that I am never going to get rich playing Blackjack at a casino, no matter whose book I read... and I can make a sales every week, no matter my stations rates or ratings if I just stay on the system. So why would I try to reinvent something that simple? Oh and the even bets in a casino? Click here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craps
at February 24, 2024 7:37 PM PST
